World stock markets to decouple as real economies do

Comments on Alan Kohler “Going for broke”, 30/10/2009, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/GDP-US-economy-government-debt-pd20091030-XARNZ?OpenDocument&src=sph

Alan, while I partly agree with you that "the worst is over and this is not a secular bear market", I think the world stock markets is very likely to be decoupled as the real world economies do.

By that I mean the US market is likely to be in an extended period of stagnation while some other markets most notably those in Asia, are likely to be showing a strong upward trend.

Australia's stock market may ride the booming trains in Asia.

Europe may be somewhere in between the US and Asia's.

Part of the reason why the US market will be stagnant is the adjustments that the US economy has to have over the next decade or longer, including its government debts and private savings.

As you said, the US government is broke! It needs life transfusion.

Equity markets, RMBS and super funds now

Comments on Alan Kohler “The big four's fabulous crisis”, 12/10/2009, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-big-fours-fabulous-crisis-pd20091012-WQRRS?OpenDocument&src=sph

Alan, it may be a bad time for super funds to switch from equities to RMBS now.

Super funds had invested in the equity markets before it went down. Equities have not fully recovered to its highs and are still recovering. So super funds should stay in the equity markets for their anticipated recovery to recover funds' values.

By switching to RMBS now from equities, super funds' paper loss would be realised and will lose the opportunity to recoup their values, because RMBS will not offer the same opportunities as equities in the near future.

So the argument for super funds to invest in RMBS now is wrong for portfolio management.

That would not be prudent.

Some fast stock market bubbles

Comments on stanleyjunjun的日志 "[转贴] 世界上几次“6倍涨幅”股市的结局", 31/07/2009, http://www.pinggu.name/space.php?uid=311813&do=blog&id=17440

股市泡沫容易形成，较为普遍，目前还没有什么太好的办法解决。
泡沫的崩盘速度当然更快，更剧烈。
需要有效而成本极低的方法来调控。
希望学金融的能有新发明，解决这一难题，获得诺贝尔奖。