David Burchell will surely be disappointed

Comments on David Burchell “Lest we forget, China's party killed millions”, 5/10/2009, http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26164177-7583,00.html

Burchell concludes his article in this way:

"From these awful revelations come two conclusions. First: that the Chinese Communist Party, now engaged in its ballet of self-celebration and self-delusion, is arguably the greatest violator of human rights in the history of the planet. (Even today, almost every one of the world's most inhumane states - from North Korea to Sudan to Zimbabwe - is a Chinese client.) Second: that when the era of the party's monopoly over China's public life comes to an end - as it will before too long - its undertakers will come, like Yang, from within its own ranks. China has had its Solzhenitsyn, you might say. It still awaits its Gorbachev."

However, he may be disappointed that his conclusions are unlikely to be anywhere near or close to the true.

There is no dispute that in the late 1950s and the early 1960s there was a big famine in china and many Chinese died of that. The “great leap forward” campaign, as well as the sudden deterioration in the relations between China and the former USSR, partly contributed to the severity of the famine that was a result of bad weather. It was a very sad episode of the first 28 year of Communism China under Mao.

However, that episode nearly 50 years ago does not mean that “that the Chinese Communist Party, now engaged in its ballet of self-celebration and self-delusion, is arguably the greatest violator of human rights in the history of the planet”, or “China's party killed millions”, as Burchell claims.

Hundreds of millions of Chinese have been lifted out of poverty as a result of China’s remarkably successful economic reforms over the last 30 years, under what Burchell branded as “the greatest violator of human rights in the history of the planet” - the Chinese Communist Party.

So it is incorrect to cite its past mistakes to argue that the Chinese Communist Party “is arguably the greatest violator of human rights in the history of the planet”. To argue that way is no different to saying that the earlier Europeans invaded and occupied the land now is called USA and slotted many Indigenous Indians during that process and from that Burchell would say the Americans are the greatest genocide.

Is that argument right? No definitely not. But that shows the absurdity of Burchell’s nonsense argument and illogic.

Secondly, Burchell says that China “still awaits its Gorbachev”. It is no different to daydreaming.

If the former USSR or Russia had benefited from Gorbachev, then it would be reasonable to argue that China might await its Gorbachev. But the problem is that both have suffered greatly following the Gorbachev era and the collapse of the former USSR. The Chinese have now realised that what Gorbachev did, if adopted by China, could only lead to chaos and a collapse in living standards.

No sane people would want a country to go down that path, except that Burchell is wishing China to. But he will be dismayed by the rejection of the Chinese.

The Russians have rejected Gorbachev. So have the Chinese.

Balance-sheet-bears

An interesting article covering a few commentaries of today or recent.

David Llewellyn-Smith "THE DISTILLERY: Balance-sheet bears", 2/10/2009

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/THE-DISTILLERY-Balance-sheet-bears-pd20091002-WEUZB?OpenDocument&src=sph

China's historical progress

Comments on Alan Kohler “China's historical whitewash”, 2/10/2009, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Overcoming-Chinas-past-pd20091002-WESM4?OpenDocument&src=sph

Alan, maybe the first half of the past 60 years was a learning period for the Chinese communists and paid a heavy fee for that learning.

In retrospect, it was also a learning period for the world's all communists, with the Chinese communists having survived while the USSR collapsed.

The result is that the Chinese communists now are a different school of communism altogether. In light of that, they may have become Adenauer in the East! That is likely to have profound implications for not China but also the world.

While it is regrettable that the first half was disastrous for China, the Chinese have moved on and are now looking into the future, as opposed to dwelling in the past.

There is no point for us outsiders to revisit their pains if they don’t want to. So we probably need to move on as well.

Wealth effect of government debt on consumption

Comments on Alan Kohler “Desperation masked by euphoria”, 1/10/2009, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/IMF-bank-write-downs-capital-raisings-double-dip-r-pd20091001-WDS7W?OpenDocument&src=sph

The problems with increased government debts are that sooner or later, it will be factored into a nation's wealth and into consumption and savings.

Most high debt countries developed countries so far have not seen that effect, but it will catch up with them one day, even though it is difficult to say how long that will be given that bubbles can be very persistent.

Japan's since the 1990 is a good example of the effect of wealth dive on consumption and the economy and its experience will be repeated by quite a number of countries.

Alternatively, some countries might run inflation reduce the burden of government debt for the government, but that can only be a disguised taxing instrument and most nations cannot escape the wealth effect of high debt.

Maybe the US will be the last one given its safe haven status so far and the fact that a large part of its government debt is held by other nations. Lucky Americans!

60th national day of the People's Republic of China

It is the 60th national day of the People's Republic of China today.
Today of 60 years ago, a new republic was established.
It marked a new begining, but the new Republic struggled for the the first half of the period.
The second half has seen a fundmental change and much more rapid development of the country.
Now it is a much stronger and more powerful country.
I was born there and lived, studied and worked there until I came to Australia to pursue a study of economics in 1989.
It is my motherland and I still have very close relatives and frieds there.
I wish it more and more prosperous, stable and peaceful day by day.