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2010-02-04

China's GDP and international exchange rates - which is worse?

Comments on “The holes in China's accounts”, see Business Spectator's Isabelle Oderberg interview with Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce chief economist David O'Rear, 4/02/2010, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/CHina-economy-data-David-ORear-pd20100203-2AVVZ?OpenDocument&src=sph

It is shocking that China's GDP data has a 20% margin of errors.

However, there are differences between the National Bureau of Statistics and Provincial Bureau of Statistics. The former is supposed to have better data and a smaller margin of errors.

Further, 20% margin of errors, though large itself, is not too bad as one might think, given the wild swings in exchange rates.

How much the $US has depreciated against the $A, and especially against the Euro over the last few years? Some may be more than 50%, I'd say.

What does that mean for income comparison internationally?

20% margin of errors is bad. The unwarranted wild swings in key international exchange rates seen in recent years are even worse! The former pales to insignificant in front of the latter!

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