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2012-07-17

Role of expectations and market forces in causing economic "imbalances"

Comments on James Laurenceson “Four vital things Australian commentators don’t understand about China’s economy” 17/07/2012 https://theconversation.edu.au/four-vital-things-australian-commentators-dont-understand-about-chinas-economy-8262
While all the factors that James mentioned matter, also important is the way people's expectations change over time that influence both culture and history.
I am surprised that it wasn't mentioned that adaptive expectations could also explain many of what have been the imbalance issues with the Chinese economy.
When a developing economy changes very rapidly with considerable uncertainties, many consumers, particularly historically poor ones that are the cases with developing economies, are adaptive to the rapid change in the economy and the rise in income, so their expectations are somewhat influenced by their past low income and won't spend as much as people in rich and economically relative stable developed countries.
Another factor is the role of surplus labor has played in depressing the real wages, at least until now. While many economists, including some in China, take the market as sacred on the one hand, they leave the market force aside in analysing the imbalance in the Chinese economy. They say it was the Chinese government policy that was pro investment and pro exports.
How cynical and illogical can they be?
People need to use their creativity in research, not simply and wholly rely on existing theories or what conventional line of views.

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