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'New normal' for China growth?

Comments on Yiping Huang “The ‘new normal’ of Chinese growth”, 19/10/2012, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Central-banks-US-England-BoE-monetary-fiscal-polic-pd20121219-34SAC?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot

China's high economic growth will come down to lower growth sometime in the future, although the timing may be complicated by the GFC and its continuous effects given that the world is still struggling to get out of it and the once in a decade leadership transition in China.

Yiping's assessment may be indicative for the likely growth of the Chinese in the coming two decades.

A factor needs to be considered very carefully is that the Chinese income level is still around $5000 while the income levels in the advanced countries could be 10 times of that. Even assuming a growth differential of 7.2% per annum on the per capita terms, it would still mean more than 30 years for China to catch up with the developed levels.

A growth differential of 7.2% per annum would require 9 to 10 per cent real growth on China's part.

I would interpret the current calm or "policy paralysis" by government as a practical response to the combination of the leadership transition and the deteriorating external economic environment with continued threat of euro zone meltdown and painfully slow economic recovery in the US. Setting a low growth expectation will be undoubtedly good for the coming leadership: if the growth is low, then it will have been expected, but if they can make the growth higher it will make the new leaders look better.

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