Putin's opportunity created by the west

Comments on STRATFOR “Putin finds opportunity in Libya”, 28/03/2011, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Putin-finds-opportunity-in-Libya-pd20110328-FD682?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot

Although many people in the west support the military operations including bombing government ground limitary facilities, assets and troops, it may eventually turn out to be disastrous for the world as a whole including the west countries.

Libya and many other middle east and Africa countries are likely to experience much more instabilities and unrest. Civil wars as well as anarky are likely to occur in some of those countries.

World oil price will be much higher than otherwise.

Further, the influence and power of the US in the middle east and Africa is likely to diminish rapidly once those governments recognise that the US will give them away and not only switch supports to oppositions but also to facilitate military operations in support of oppositions, they will consider alternative powers for support.

Russia, China, India and Germany are likely to feel the void if the US loses its influence.

The US president was prudent in his hesitation of military actions, but eventually was hijacked by the French and the Brit leaders acted to divert their own domestic woes and overwhelmed by some US interest groups that seemed to have misjudged the situations in the middle east and the Arab world for short term gains, but at the expense of the US long term interests in the region and the world.

Interesting time lies ahead!

Will the Libya intervention benefit Sarkozy?

Comments on Charles McPhedran “Sarkozy play a bid for survival”, 21/03/2011, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/sarkozy-play-a-bid-for-survival/story-e6frg6ux-1226025633235

The international intervention in Libya, especially large scale bombings of Libya whether it is current Libya government troops or civilian casualties, will complicate the Middle East and the Arab world.

While the Libya situation has some elements of Kaddafi's dictatorship against oppositions to his rule, there are also the unease characteristics of internal tribal and regional conflicts.

Further, although there were international backings from the African Union and the Arab League, those supports may reflect internal politics among those regional organisations. The tide can turn very quickly once the situation in Libya changes one way or another.

France's adventure might have short term benefits, but is likely to incur longer term losses in the Middle East and Arab world.

Sarkozy's calculation and attempt to use external conflicts for his personal gains in domestic political affairs may prove to be a serious mistake and an error in judgement with the rush of blood.

History will be the judge and the judgement day may not be too far away for Sarkozy.