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2011-03-22

Will the Libya intervention benefit Sarkozy?

Comments on Charles McPhedran “Sarkozy play a bid for survival”, 21/03/2011, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/sarkozy-play-a-bid-for-survival/story-e6frg6ux-1226025633235

The international intervention in Libya, especially large scale bombings of Libya whether it is current Libya government troops or civilian casualties, will complicate the Middle East and the Arab world.

While the Libya situation has some elements of Kaddafi's dictatorship against oppositions to his rule, there are also the unease characteristics of internal tribal and regional conflicts.

Further, although there were international backings from the African Union and the Arab League, those supports may reflect internal politics among those regional organisations. The tide can turn very quickly once the situation in Libya changes one way or another.

France's adventure might have short term benefits, but is likely to incur longer term losses in the Middle East and Arab world.

Sarkozy's calculation and attempt to use external conflicts for his personal gains in domestic political affairs may prove to be a serious mistake and an error in judgement with the rush of blood.

History will be the judge and the judgement day may not be too far away for Sarkozy.

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