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2013-09-18

Complexity demands more monetary policy tools

Comments on Stephen Koukoulas "House price bull heaven", 18/09/2013, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/9/18/property/house-price-bull-heaven

Leaving how the housing market price in Australia will develop and how the RBA will deal with that aside, it should be acknowledged that the current monetary policy tool is not enough to deal with both the broad economy and the asset markets prices with only uniform official interest rates applied to all.

The RBNZ policy development regarding housing lending as Koukoulas mentioned (New Zealand’s bold move against the housing bubble)  partly mirrored China's approach and has some merits, though the approach of restricting the LVR is not an efficient economic policy because it lacks clear price signals for both lenders and borrowers. In another word, it is not really a market approach but a administrative approach.
A better policy approach is a market based on price, that is, by introducing and applying differential 'official' rates that could be applied when dealing with different situations such as the broad economy and the housing market.
That itself may raise some costs, but that may be a price that needs to be paid in dealing with complex situations. Otherwise, you may continue to have the sort of risks of the GFC to reoccur. Further, it is not too dissimilar to fiscal policies that have its own structural content.

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