Difficulties with BAU in discussing emissions reduction

Comments on Ma Xin, Li Jifeng and Zhang Yaxiong “China’s carbon emission reduction targets: trancending business as usual”, 18/12/2009, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2009/12/18/chinas-carbon-emission-reduction-targets-trancending-business-as-usual/

It is unbelievable why most people just don't talk directly about a simple, fair and transparent measure of emissions and emission reductions.

People talk about absolute or relative reductions. But as this article shows, neither can be objectively measured. This leads to the situation that developed countries say the target by developing countries relative the BAU is no good because of problems with measures or BAU; and developing countries say that the absolute reduction target by developed countries are no good, because their BAU can actually be lower than their proposed target emissions.

So, there are no objective measures of BAU for both camps.

The most fundamental issue in carbon emissions is it has global negative externality that affects the wellbeing of everyone detrimentally no matter who is emitting.

So the simplest solution is the "user pay" principle, that means those who emits pay for the negative externality they cause.

But paying to whom? They should pay for everyone on the earth.

This naturally leads to an equal per capita emission criterion that can be used to calculate which countries should pay and which countries should be paid as a result of unequal emissions per capita between countries, irrespective rich or poor.

Further, due to the global nature, the most efficient and effective way to undertake emissions reduction or limitation is to employ a global carbon tax that will achieve the emission reduction target and use that to calculate each countries emissions tax liability.

A country's share of the tax revenue is its population share of the total global carbon tax collections calculated using the above method.

In this way, there is no room for dispute or argument about BAU, relative or absolute reduction.

Every country can focus on how to manage its economy under a global emissions regime that has no distortions.