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2010-06-26

Gillard more likely to make a difference

Comment on Paul Kelly “Factions, patronage and survival”, 26/06/2010, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/factions-patronage-and-survival/story-e6frg6zo-1225884478423
Paul, I would be a little more kind to Labor and Gillard for the event in the past week.

Rudd's management style means not only that the government had great difficulties in implementing its policies, but also that it was difficult to get the policies right, irrespective what Labor's ideology and tradition.

Without respect for and consult with even cabinet and other ministers and with micromanagement with inexperienced and impractical advice, Rudd (and Swan for that matter) formulated wrong policies, with the RSPT as the most evident example.

Yes, Gillard may be also guilty of those mistakes to a degree because of her close involvement in some of those processes; she was loyal to Rudd and was unable to convince him to change. It was unfortunate for her.

I think she will be able to govern effectively as the Prime Minister, for three reasons: her reform credential, Labor having no other choice and a win by Gillard in the next election.

Firstly, she has reform credentials and can stand up against powerful unions, as you mentioned.

Secondly, Labor has no other choice but to allow her enough authority to do what she wishes to do, even that may mean changes to some of their tradition. Any other change to the Labor leadership is likely to be suicidal for Labor. That means she has a chance to exercise her authority and to make a difference.

Thirdly, if she wins the next election she will have the same authority and perhaps further than that Rudd got after the last election.

Labor's chance of wining the next election is boosted by the leadership change and also because she is the first female Prime Minister.

As long as she can resolve the mining tax and climate change issues quickly, she will win the next election, partly due to the fact that the opposition has a leader who is not very popular with the public.

History is in the making again and Gillard is given an excellent opportunity. She will win the Prime Ministership in her own right.

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