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2010-07-19

The election will be close

Comments on Paul Kelly “Labor stakes its reputation”, 18/07/2010, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-stakes-its-reputation/story-fn59niix-1225893681467
This election will be very interesting indeed.

Gillard is the first female PM and this is still Labor's first term. She is also a competent minister, even though she has been part of the Rudd core. Usually, she should have been given the chance to run in her own right. But the BER has been a serious problem and that may have a deep effect on her image. The government's failures in the past two years are not too distant from voters' mind.

Abbott is a conviction politician and is honest for whatever his image may have been. Yes, his past may have been polarising to voters. He now has promised no change to IR laws, which is likely to soften his hardline image a little bit.

On big issues it is hard to distinguish the two parties. On the economy, the coalition had traditional strengths, but Labor avoided a recession for whatever costs it incurred for the future. So it is close for the two parties.

On asylum seekers, Labor is moving closer to the coalition's position and they become very close too.

On climate change, no one can tell what differences they have, and both can be seen as equally negative from general voters' point of view.

On health, it seems another close call.

So, it is likely that how Gillard and Abbott rebadge some of the key issues, such as climate change, although ironically Labor may have more flexibility in terms of changing policies (making new policies).

If they can't make a difference in doing that, then it may become how their personality and character come to play in the campaign that will determine their fate.

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