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2010-07-15

Optimal future population path in Australia

Comments on Oliver Marc Hartwich “Australia's choice between growth and decline”, 15/07/2010, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Julia-Gillard-Tony-Abbott-population-immigration-m-pd20100714-7C5GT?OpenDocument&src=sph
The lessons from European demographic changes in the past decades should not be just that as Dr Oliver Marc Hartwich implied.

The most important lesson is how to respond to future population changes, as opposed to continuing a growth path as Dr Oliver Marc Hartwich suggests.

For Australia, there are three potential demographic paths for future: growth, stable or decline.

Given that it is the per capita growth in GDP or wealth that is most important to the population at large, each potential scenario can be managed reasonably in Australia as long as the population decline is not too rapid and certainly that can be managed to achieve without too much difficulty.

Australia has the luxury of time to consider and plan for future population path and the flexibility of immigration if needed at its disposal that was not necessarily all available to the European nations at that time in the past.
In my view, Dr Oliver Marc Hartwich's view misses the most important point and lacks a clear strategic version.

Given the challenges from climate change and natural resources, my gut feeling is that the best path for future Australian population is more likely to be a relatively stable one.

Having said that, I must qualify that statement by saying that we need more studies before we can firmly decide what will be best for us.

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