Gillard's lost the unlosable election

Saturday's election is still being counted and the final exact outcome will not be known for days perhaps for more than a week from now. However, the most likely outcome is still a hung parliament with neither of the two major political parties has a majority. It is in the range of low 70s with 74 as the maximum, still two short of majority of minimum 76 seats in the house of the representatives.


Gillard could win or have won the election, but instead she is likely to lose it from the current state of count.

How could that be? The main reason was climate her change policy.

Instead of outlining a credible climate change policy, what she did was almost no change to what Rudd's one that saw his popularity plummeted and eventually costed his prime ministership. Pf course, there was a little spin or twist, that is, her citizens' assembly, a joke or laughing stock aimed at fooling the public and voters.

What she could have done on climate change policy?

She could have announced a significant change to the Rudd policy; say that she will introduce a moderate carbon tax on emissions. Out of fear of Abbott's attack on a big carbon price, she specifically ruled that option out towards the end of the campaign.

Of course, Abbott would attack a carbon price. But that attacking tactics would not be effective if the proceeds will go to the voters on an equitable distribution and make it revenue neutral. A revenue neutral carbon tax will completely diminish Abbott's ammunitions for attacking a big tax!

Had Gillard done that during the campaign or before it had started, the swings from Labor to the Greens would have not been that large and it would be completely possible that Labor would have got at least 76 seats and possibly more.

She said she would have three priorities, the mining tax, asylum boats, and climate change.

The first was handled reasonably well. The second one was done very poorly, but not fatal. Well, the last one was not just extremely poorly, but also fatal.

She is the first Australian Prime Minister and the public was excited and was willing to give her the benefit of doubt. But she squander the goodwill and lost the unlosable election, just as John Hewson did in the 1993 election.

So it has been Gillard’s climate change policy that has probably sunk her prime ministership.