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2010-09-18

Challenging issues make the major parties work better

Comments on Jennifer Hewett “Issues bring parties back to reality”, 18/09/2010, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/issues-bring-parties-back-to-reality/story-e6frg6zo-1225925579971
The three instant pressure points that Jennifer Hewett listed, namely the NBN, climate change and the mining tax, are good and challenging issues to test the major parties. The current hung parliament means they will both have to work very hard to convince the independents and the greens which jointly hold the balance power in the lower house.

The costs and benefit of the NBN, its implementation / roll out and its take up rates will be important for both the major parties to battle. The government will need to strictly control the costs of roll out and rely on the consumers to take up and use it. The opposition will need to identify where cost issues or low taking up rates will be and use them to discredit the government's NBN rationale.

For climate change, the government is likely to go with the Greens' idea of a carbon tax and use the revenue for consumers / people as opposed to businesses or polluters, although the initial tax is likely to be low and tentative to test its effective. That is likely to increase efficiency and lower costs.

The opposition, on the other hand, needs to gradually realise its current direct approach with little use of market mechanism, will become irrelevant in the current political environment and need to come up with a good strategy to neutralise the issue and hold the government to account to make the policy the best possible, that is, to minimise the costs of any emissions reduction. If it persist with its no tax approach, it will lose credibility in its climate change policy.

The mining tax will be an interesting case for all parties. The current agreement between the government and the three biggest miners is unlikely to generate enough revenue as the government estimated. Besides, there are issues that other miners are unhappy with the agreement.

The greens want to have a higher mining tax, but that will make both the government and the rural independent MPs uncomfortable. The opposition does not want the tax. So the mining tax will greatly test Gillard's leadership skills. One clear danger is that Swan as the Treasurer will be a significant handicap to the government, as the initial stage of the government's mining tax development indicated. Again, the opposition should play a constructive role in the sense to hold the government to account to make the tax best possible.
 
The government needs to explain to the public what it ageed to for any policies for climate change and mining tax are the best possible under the current political circumstance.

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