Comments on Peter Drysdale "Asia’s next growth frontier", 5/05/2016
The current participants of the RCEP, particularly those excluded by the TPP, should have some sense of urgency to accelerate the negotiation processes, so they are not too disadvantaged by their exclusion by the TPP.
I would suggest that they should aim at conclusion as early as possible and have provisions that whichever member countries ratified it, they could apply to those countries, so to avoid unnecessary delays in the ratification processes, in case some countries encounter difficulties of some sort.
Given the fact some of the RCEP members are also TPP members, all members must be aiming at helping the conclusion of RCEP and avoid any drag for other purposes.
And by achieving a non-regional exclusive and growth enhancing RCEP as early as possible, it will be not only for the region and members but also for the whole world.
In the context of maintaining continued and rapid regional economic growth, I appreciate the title of this post.
Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts
2016-04-28
Such superiority does not necessarily mean everything
Comments on the comments by YOSHIMICHI MORIYAMA26TH APRIL, 2016, 11:10 PM, on
Hugh White "Need to face the facts in Asia", 18 April 2016
You have sated the following: “America will keep its military superiortity over China for an idefinite time, and it seems that it can deter China in the South China Sea.”
So what?
With all the respect, the US and its allies were equally, if not more superior during the Korea War as compared to China. The fact is that China didn’t lose that war and that America together with its allies didn’t win that war either.
And further (on his/her second comments), with all the possible respect to you, I have to say that your central interpretation of “中華人民共和国” is incorrect.
Hugh White "Need to face the facts in Asia", 18 April 2016
You have sated the following: “America will keep its military superiortity over China for an idefinite time, and it seems that it can deter China in the South China Sea.”
So what?
With all the respect, the US and its allies were equally, if not more superior during the Korea War as compared to China. The fact is that China didn’t lose that war and that America together with its allies didn’t win that war either.
And further (on his/her second comments), with all the possible respect to you, I have to say that your central interpretation of “中華人民共和国” is incorrect.
2016-04-12
Commenting on 'What might a new Asian order look like?'
Comments on Robert A. Manning and Jim Przystup "What might a new Asian order look like?" 12/04/2016
This article is really lacking of imagination, to say the least, because its real aim was probably to maintain the continued dominance of the US which they seem to have a strong interest.
The rise of the US following Britain may serve as a path if the US and the authors will try to do what the British did when it faced challenges from the US.
Could Britain in any way to stop the rise of the US and the change in the world order, given the economic power of the latter and its strengths in military or the ability to transform part of its economic power into military power if and when it was needed?
Could there have been an alternative and better trajectory than what was then? Could Britain have possibly been able to contain the USA forever?
Further, did all the former masters of former colonies adopted the best and fair strategies when their former colonies began to ask for independence? Were they really all caring the interests of those colonies instead of leaving some tricky and divisive legacies behind?
Would that have always been justified to maintain the status quo at those times?
One may like the certainty of the present time, but future will definitely be different from the present, although sometimes it is harder to predict what it will be exactly.
The following is the second part of my comments on the article:
The authors seem to think Asian people cannot come up with an Asian order that benefit all Asians. If that is true, they run the serious risk of being significantly estimating the intelligence and creativity of Asians.
What might a new Asian order look like?
Firstly, a simplest answer would be if the Americans are wise enough to not interfere with Asian affairs, that would be a big part of a new Asian order. Asians can live well by themselves without their interference. The US can do a rebalance back to its own country in America!
Secondly, a new Asian order would be that where all Asian countries are proud members of their regional organisation and being respected not by each other themselves but by other interregional plays, big and small.
Thirdly, a new Asian order would be where the Chinese, the Indians, the Japanese, the Koreans, the Russians, and ASEAN people and all other Asian people are masters of Asia and work together toward the rise of Asia, beyond the rise of of any single or small group of countries in Asia.
Fourthly, the Americans, the Europeans are no longer able to arrogantly regard themselves as the first and second world and treat Asians as the third world people. They will not be able to monopoly that status for themselves.
The above are elements of a new Asian order and of an Asian dream.
It would be a proud Asian dream similar to but more than what King's dream was, because Asians have shown some of that already.
Yes, there are some Asians who like to beg their uncle Sam because it is now still the superpower but they don't have true Asian characters.
This article is really lacking of imagination, to say the least, because its real aim was probably to maintain the continued dominance of the US which they seem to have a strong interest.
The rise of the US following Britain may serve as a path if the US and the authors will try to do what the British did when it faced challenges from the US.
Could Britain in any way to stop the rise of the US and the change in the world order, given the economic power of the latter and its strengths in military or the ability to transform part of its economic power into military power if and when it was needed?
Could there have been an alternative and better trajectory than what was then? Could Britain have possibly been able to contain the USA forever?
Further, did all the former masters of former colonies adopted the best and fair strategies when their former colonies began to ask for independence? Were they really all caring the interests of those colonies instead of leaving some tricky and divisive legacies behind?
Would that have always been justified to maintain the status quo at those times?
One may like the certainty of the present time, but future will definitely be different from the present, although sometimes it is harder to predict what it will be exactly.
The following is the second part of my comments on the article:
The authors seem to think Asian people cannot come up with an Asian order that benefit all Asians. If that is true, they run the serious risk of being significantly estimating the intelligence and creativity of Asians.
What might a new Asian order look like?
Firstly, a simplest answer would be if the Americans are wise enough to not interfere with Asian affairs, that would be a big part of a new Asian order. Asians can live well by themselves without their interference. The US can do a rebalance back to its own country in America!
Secondly, a new Asian order would be that where all Asian countries are proud members of their regional organisation and being respected not by each other themselves but by other interregional plays, big and small.
Thirdly, a new Asian order would be where the Chinese, the Indians, the Japanese, the Koreans, the Russians, and ASEAN people and all other Asian people are masters of Asia and work together toward the rise of Asia, beyond the rise of of any single or small group of countries in Asia.
Fourthly, the Americans, the Europeans are no longer able to arrogantly regard themselves as the first and second world and treat Asians as the third world people. They will not be able to monopoly that status for themselves.
The above are elements of a new Asian order and of an Asian dream.
It would be a proud Asian dream similar to but more than what King's dream was, because Asians have shown some of that already.
Yes, there are some Asians who like to beg their uncle Sam because it is now still the superpower but they don't have true Asian characters.
2016-03-29
China, Asian countries and new Asia order
Comments on Hugh White "Can Asia break free of great-power dynamics?" 29/03/2016
Some comments point out some unsaid issues, including what a new Asia order would look like and how to bring that peacefully.
While I am an economist as opposed to international strategist, I would venture a hypothesis that the best scenario for a new Asia order to appear peacefully would be for China to work not only for its own interests but also for the interests of all Asian countries, so that Asia is truly for all Asians as a whole, irrespective for China to confront the US or not.
The underlying assumption is that Asians will benefit from a new Asia order.
If you don’t look after your neighbours, they will not support you in your endeavours.
I think that will need China to make some hard decisions and choices, including to make some compromises and perhaps sacrifices in the process for it to rise as a true and powerful leader in Asia. America will naturally fade from Asia or its assumed uncontested leadership in Asia will be diluted, in that process.
It will be wise for China if it can do that. I think there will be enough wise people in China for it to realise that is the best option forward.
Some comments point out some unsaid issues, including what a new Asia order would look like and how to bring that peacefully.
While I am an economist as opposed to international strategist, I would venture a hypothesis that the best scenario for a new Asia order to appear peacefully would be for China to work not only for its own interests but also for the interests of all Asian countries, so that Asia is truly for all Asians as a whole, irrespective for China to confront the US or not.
The underlying assumption is that Asians will benefit from a new Asia order.
If you don’t look after your neighbours, they will not support you in your endeavours.
I think that will need China to make some hard decisions and choices, including to make some compromises and perhaps sacrifices in the process for it to rise as a true and powerful leader in Asia. America will naturally fade from Asia or its assumed uncontested leadership in Asia will be diluted, in that process.
It will be wise for China if it can do that. I think there will be enough wise people in China for it to realise that is the best option forward.
2016-02-03
Regional food challenges and world production
Comments on R. Quentin Grafton, John Williams and Qiang Jiang "Food security: Asia’s critical balancing act", 3/02/2016
This post seems to argue the challenges of crop production in Asia, particularly South Asia on the one hand, and the apparently success worldwide in crop production in meeting world demand. If that is the case of regional challenge, then trade will feel the uneven distribution in crop production between regions/countries, unless some countries are so poor that they cannot afford to import grains. So one of the solution/strategy is to boost the income level of poor countries as an alternative to increase their domestic crop production.
Another factor that will exacerbate food security is the change in the family planning policy in China that will shift from one to two children per couple from the past one child per couple. Given China's population size, future population will be greater than most past projections. Higher population means the demand for food will be greater too. That means any baseline population projection needs to be updated.
Another point is generically modified food. Is the issue of safety of generically modified food for human consumption completely settled?
This post seems to argue the challenges of crop production in Asia, particularly South Asia on the one hand, and the apparently success worldwide in crop production in meeting world demand. If that is the case of regional challenge, then trade will feel the uneven distribution in crop production between regions/countries, unless some countries are so poor that they cannot afford to import grains. So one of the solution/strategy is to boost the income level of poor countries as an alternative to increase their domestic crop production.
Another factor that will exacerbate food security is the change in the family planning policy in China that will shift from one to two children per couple from the past one child per couple. Given China's population size, future population will be greater than most past projections. Higher population means the demand for food will be greater too. That means any baseline population projection needs to be updated.
Another point is generically modified food. Is the issue of safety of generically modified food for human consumption completely settled?
2015-12-09
Ageing and robots in future Asia
Comments on Peter McDonald "Growing old before growing rich in Asia", 9/12/2015
I think Gunther has raised a very good point in terms of the likely widespread using of robots to replace simple and low skilled labour in the coming decades and its implications or interactions with the ageing demography in many countries.
In that context, it may not necessarily a bad thing there is a relative decline in the share of younger and working population, should the prediction of robots to replace labour on a very large scale. It is likely that the education including vocational education needs to train people to be have the skills to use, interact with, change and create robots.
Human capital may play a more important role in the economy and dictate international specialisation and trade.
Nevertheless, it will be important for many to understand such implications.
I think Gunther has raised a very good point in terms of the likely widespread using of robots to replace simple and low skilled labour in the coming decades and its implications or interactions with the ageing demography in many countries.
In that context, it may not necessarily a bad thing there is a relative decline in the share of younger and working population, should the prediction of robots to replace labour on a very large scale. It is likely that the education including vocational education needs to train people to be have the skills to use, interact with, change and create robots.
Human capital may play a more important role in the economy and dictate international specialisation and trade.
Nevertheless, it will be important for many to understand such implications.
2015-07-21
Model citizens required of middle powers to step up
Comments on Gareth Evans "Time for the middle powers to step up", 21/07/2015
There will be justifiable places for the middle powers in Asia or Asia Pacific to play their rightful roles in building and managing regional security and other useful regional institutions.
It, however, requires the middle powers to be creative and truly independent, at least when acting to play such roles. Otherwise, some middle powers may be quite biased and may act with some outdated historical links or allies, that may be perceived by some non allied regional members as doing harmful things to them.
Perhaps that is the challenge for some middle powers, do they really act in the interests of all the regional members or do they work for their allies, one may ask?
Certainly, some and possibly lot of actions by some middle powers have either an overt or covert agenda, such as the so called “The not-quite-quadrilateral: Australia, Japan and India” posted by David Lang on the Australian Policy Online, may point to some of those. That seems to aim squarely at containing China, if judged from what the Japanese official was saying. That would unlikely make China happy and warm to ideas like that.
There will be justifiable places for the middle powers in Asia or Asia Pacific to play their rightful roles in building and managing regional security and other useful regional institutions.
It, however, requires the middle powers to be creative and truly independent, at least when acting to play such roles. Otherwise, some middle powers may be quite biased and may act with some outdated historical links or allies, that may be perceived by some non allied regional members as doing harmful things to them.
Perhaps that is the challenge for some middle powers, do they really act in the interests of all the regional members or do they work for their allies, one may ask?
Certainly, some and possibly lot of actions by some middle powers have either an overt or covert agenda, such as the so called “The not-quite-quadrilateral: Australia, Japan and India” posted by David Lang on the Australian Policy Online, may point to some of those. That seems to aim squarely at containing China, if judged from what the Japanese official was saying. That would unlikely make China happy and warm to ideas like that.
Australian housing market - bubbles that can last
Comments on news report by Sally Rose "'We ain't seen nothing yet': Chinese foreign investment in Australian property tipped to surge", 21/07/2015
Rose reported that, "according to Colonial First State Global Asset Management chief economist Stephen Halmarick", "the liberalisation of China's capital markets will inflate asset prices acrosss the globe", with a surge to an unprecedented degree we have never seen.
By liveralisation of China's capital market, it is meant and I quote a paragraph from Rose's news report:
"But what will really matter for the world is how China opens up to allow its people to send money offshore. Australians might think they've seen a lot of Chinese investment in the Sydney and Melbourne property market, but we ain't seen nothing yet," Mr Halmarick said at a panel hosted by the Australian Institute of Superannuation Trustees in Sydney.
I have the view and have commented before that while there are bubbles in the Australian housing market, but those bubbles won't burst for a prolonged and extended period and could even perpetuate, simply because of the unique characteristics of the Australian housing market. Those characteristics include the following:
Australia is politically very stable with few sovereign risks
Australia is a small and open market - small population and allowing foreign investors to buy into its housing market
Australia has very large land, so its population density is very low
Australia is geographically located close to Asia, where there there are two countries, China and India, whose population are over a billion each and some other countries with population over 100 million. Population density in most Asian countries is very high
Large Asian countries, such as China and India, are emerging and fast growing economies with rapidly rising income in general and many people have become, are or will be becoming rich including multi millionaires
The property markets in some Asian countries, such China, are very expensive and many of those people are looking at overseas to buy properties for them to enjoy
Further, it is possible some in their home countries may feel insecure of their own assets and
want to find more secure countries to invest or park their money for one reason or another
All these factors suggest there are strong external factors which increase the demand for Australian housing properties.
The relatively small Australian housing market, combined with those strong and large external demand, mean a domestic housing market bubble sustained by external factors that will last for a very long time to come.
As a result, the demand for housing properties in Australia is not just its domestic demand and has a significant element of external demand that makes the demand much higher than the domestic demand alone. The housing market cannot be analysed in the conventional way that only focuses on domestic factors.
Put it another way, the Australian housing bubbles have very strong and thick layers supported, strengthened and reinforced by strong and large external factors - bubbles can last.
Rose reported that, "according to Colonial First State Global Asset Management chief economist Stephen Halmarick", "the liberalisation of China's capital markets will inflate asset prices acrosss the globe", with a surge to an unprecedented degree we have never seen.
By liveralisation of China's capital market, it is meant and I quote a paragraph from Rose's news report:
"But what will really matter for the world is how China opens up to allow its people to send money offshore. Australians might think they've seen a lot of Chinese investment in the Sydney and Melbourne property market, but we ain't seen nothing yet," Mr Halmarick said at a panel hosted by the Australian Institute of Superannuation Trustees in Sydney.
I have the view and have commented before that while there are bubbles in the Australian housing market, but those bubbles won't burst for a prolonged and extended period and could even perpetuate, simply because of the unique characteristics of the Australian housing market. Those characteristics include the following:
Australia is politically very stable with few sovereign risks
Australia is a small and open market - small population and allowing foreign investors to buy into its housing market
Australia has very large land, so its population density is very low
Australia is geographically located close to Asia, where there there are two countries, China and India, whose population are over a billion each and some other countries with population over 100 million. Population density in most Asian countries is very high
Large Asian countries, such as China and India, are emerging and fast growing economies with rapidly rising income in general and many people have become, are or will be becoming rich including multi millionaires
The property markets in some Asian countries, such China, are very expensive and many of those people are looking at overseas to buy properties for them to enjoy
Further, it is possible some in their home countries may feel insecure of their own assets and
want to find more secure countries to invest or park their money for one reason or another
All these factors suggest there are strong external factors which increase the demand for Australian housing properties.
The relatively small Australian housing market, combined with those strong and large external demand, mean a domestic housing market bubble sustained by external factors that will last for a very long time to come.
As a result, the demand for housing properties in Australia is not just its domestic demand and has a significant element of external demand that makes the demand much higher than the domestic demand alone. The housing market cannot be analysed in the conventional way that only focuses on domestic factors.
Put it another way, the Australian housing bubbles have very strong and thick layers supported, strengthened and reinforced by strong and large external factors - bubbles can last.
2015-07-13
China and Japan must work towards closer and faster Asia integration
Comments on Seungjoo Lee "The politics of Asian integration", 13/07/2014
It is pity that Asia, particularly East Asia has not moved to a much more closer institutional framework to reflect its underlying economic integration or links. While it is understandable that Asia including East Asia, is more diverse than Western Europe and North America, every country, particular the bigger ones, must overcome historical legacies and difficulties to look forward to a new, more dynamic, more prosperous and more closely integrated Asia, so every country can benefit much more from it.
As I have remarked somewhere else before, the major countries in Asia, particularly China and Japan, need to be more creative in handling its bilateral relationships.
For any country or countries, the aspiration to be a global leader must start with an effective, constructive and inspirational regional leader first. Without being a good regional leader, it is impossible to become a global leader.
Both China and Japan, even though Japan is a US ally and China may face from time to time an attempt of containment by the US, must reflect on their strategic relationship and approaches with each other and come up with a better strategy to make Asia as a more integrated region economically, politically and from security point of view.
They have a greater responsibility in leading Asia.
For China, more confident and assertiveness should not be aggressiveness and being perceived as bully from a bigger brother. It need to pay attention to its leadership style. And it must approach territory issues/disputes with some other countries from a regional and global leadership point of view and to resolve those issues under international laws. If there are difficulties and or ambiguities with international laws, it should seek a solution peacefully, more creatively and more constructively with other parties.
For Japan, it will probably serve its interests much better if it acts independently as opposed to using and relying its ally with the US in dealing with China and being a partner of the US's China attainment. It will simply not work and will damage its own interests more than China's.
It is pity that Asia, particularly East Asia has not moved to a much more closer institutional framework to reflect its underlying economic integration or links. While it is understandable that Asia including East Asia, is more diverse than Western Europe and North America, every country, particular the bigger ones, must overcome historical legacies and difficulties to look forward to a new, more dynamic, more prosperous and more closely integrated Asia, so every country can benefit much more from it.
As I have remarked somewhere else before, the major countries in Asia, particularly China and Japan, need to be more creative in handling its bilateral relationships.
For any country or countries, the aspiration to be a global leader must start with an effective, constructive and inspirational regional leader first. Without being a good regional leader, it is impossible to become a global leader.
Both China and Japan, even though Japan is a US ally and China may face from time to time an attempt of containment by the US, must reflect on their strategic relationship and approaches with each other and come up with a better strategy to make Asia as a more integrated region economically, politically and from security point of view.
They have a greater responsibility in leading Asia.
For China, more confident and assertiveness should not be aggressiveness and being perceived as bully from a bigger brother. It need to pay attention to its leadership style. And it must approach territory issues/disputes with some other countries from a regional and global leadership point of view and to resolve those issues under international laws. If there are difficulties and or ambiguities with international laws, it should seek a solution peacefully, more creatively and more constructively with other parties.
For Japan, it will probably serve its interests much better if it acts independently as opposed to using and relying its ally with the US in dealing with China and being a partner of the US's China attainment. It will simply not work and will damage its own interests more than China's.
2015-07-07
Optimising and leveraging the "one road and one belt" project
Comments on Andrew Elek "China takes the lead on economic integration", 7/7/2015
The so called “one road - one belt" project may rival and is likely to dwarf the post war Marshall Plan of the European Recovery Program.
Given its huge scale and scope, it seems there is a need to develop a high level conceptual framework for accelerating the implementation of the huge “one road – one belt” multinational project, along the line of operation research of linear and non-linear optimisations.
One of the main objectives would be to maximise the sum of the economies with constraints including the existing institutional constraints. Some constraints may be binding and a coordinated approach in relaxing the most important constraints through institutional building will generate significant extra gains. Leading countries involved in the project should take the initiative and work together to seek maximising the gains of the project.
The so called “one road - one belt" project may rival and is likely to dwarf the post war Marshall Plan of the European Recovery Program.
Given its huge scale and scope, it seems there is a need to develop a high level conceptual framework for accelerating the implementation of the huge “one road – one belt” multinational project, along the line of operation research of linear and non-linear optimisations.
One of the main objectives would be to maximise the sum of the economies with constraints including the existing institutional constraints. Some constraints may be binding and a coordinated approach in relaxing the most important constraints through institutional building will generate significant extra gains. Leading countries involved in the project should take the initiative and work together to seek maximising the gains of the project.
2015-06-30
China and Japan: share the most responsibilities for Asian leadership in the Asian Century
Comments on Peter Drysdale "Leadership in Asia under scrutiny", 29/06/2015
While the currently perceived and real lack of leadership in Asia, to a degree or in part, reflects the complexity and diversity of Asia and Asian countries, the most pivotal part underlying those, in my view, lies in the often difficult bilateral relations between China and Japan. They are the two largest economies in Asia, but they often do not see eye to eye with each other. Further, they are the largest developed and developing countries respectively in Asia.
While the currently perceived and real lack of leadership in Asia, to a degree or in part, reflects the complexity and diversity of Asia and Asian countries, the most pivotal part underlying those, in my view, lies in the often difficult bilateral relations between China and Japan. They are the two largest economies in Asia, but they often do not see eye to eye with each other. Further, they are the largest developed and developing countries respectively in Asia.
When and if these two countries sort out their issues and problems so they can develop a relationship similar to that between Germany and France and Britain, many issues of Asia’s lack of leadership in the so called Asian century are likely to be resolved soon.
Both countries need to make compromises for their common good/benefits. That requires true and courageous personal leadership from the top leaders among the two countries. They need to explain the benefits to their respective people and carry them with them to forge a new bilateral relationship. And that is not an easy job by any means.
Japan may need to be really independent as opposed to be a US deputy in East Asia. China may need to embrace more of the good parts of the current global governance while at the same time to form a broad coalition to reform those areas that are no longer meet the current needs of developing and possibly many developed countries. In the process, major developing countries as a coalition, working together with most of the developed countries, can develop and design a new global governance structure.
Should a constructive and cooperative relationship be developed between China and Japan, many of the existing issues in Asia will be much easier to resolve.
2015-06-25
Housing market in Australia: bubbles or not and burst or not?
Comments on Gavin Wood and Rachel Ong "The real reasons negative gearing on housing should be phased out", 23/06/2015
I think some of the comments so far have well reasoned arguments against the remove of negative gearing, given housing investment is investment after all and investment should be allowed to deduct costs given investment in real estate is part of that investor's activity.
Another point is concerned with ABS finance statistics. Is that net or gross financing/Borrowing? Compared to owner home purchase, investors new borrowing is likely to contain a significant refinancing. If using net borrowing, the share of investment borrowing may be lower than the current indicator, although I have no idea how the financial statistics is done by ABS.
Thirdly, one of the commentators has listed a number of reasons, though no quantification of the contributions of each one. For example, how much is the effects of foreign buyers of Australian properties? Without knowing those individual effects, the discussion of this article is to a large degree hypothetical, unfortunately.
Further, there are strong implications for whether housing bubbles will burst or how rapid and to what degree any burst will occur. My own feel is that the are bubbles in Australian housing, but they can be sustained much more easily than in many other countries because of the following factors:
The external factors means that the Australian housing market cannot be simply judged by Australian income alone. Australian housing may be bubbling based on Australian income levels, but that indicator in not particularly helpful unfortunately. In another word, Australian housing bubbles can be sustained by external factors.
I think some of the comments so far have well reasoned arguments against the remove of negative gearing, given housing investment is investment after all and investment should be allowed to deduct costs given investment in real estate is part of that investor's activity.
Another point is concerned with ABS finance statistics. Is that net or gross financing/Borrowing? Compared to owner home purchase, investors new borrowing is likely to contain a significant refinancing. If using net borrowing, the share of investment borrowing may be lower than the current indicator, although I have no idea how the financial statistics is done by ABS.
Thirdly, one of the commentators has listed a number of reasons, though no quantification of the contributions of each one. For example, how much is the effects of foreign buyers of Australian properties? Without knowing those individual effects, the discussion of this article is to a large degree hypothetical, unfortunately.
Further, there are strong implications for whether housing bubbles will burst or how rapid and to what degree any burst will occur. My own feel is that the are bubbles in Australian housing, but they can be sustained much more easily than in many other countries because of the following factors:
- Australia is located in Asia where there billions of population and population density is very high and land expensive
- Australia is large in land and small in population
- The policy allowing foreign investment in real estate invites foreign investments particularly from Asia where there are billions of population and they are growing very rapidly in income and they have scarce and extremely expensive land
The external factors means that the Australian housing market cannot be simply judged by Australian income alone. Australian housing may be bubbling based on Australian income levels, but that indicator in not particularly helpful unfortunately. In another word, Australian housing bubbles can be sustained by external factors.
2012-12-19
America and power games in Asia
Comments on Yang Razali Kassim “East Asia Summit 2012: Asia’s power game unfolds”, 12/12/2012, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/12/12/east-asia-summit-2012-asias-power-game-unfolds/
It appears that the third layer game has far reaching implications for the power play in East Asia, given it is out of the desire of ASEAN for its centrality purpose. RCEP seems to suggest that it will be difficult for any power to unilaterally act to attempt to purposefully exclude any important regional players. This is particularly noteworthy given the proceedings of other economic negotiations, particularly with some exclusivity.
The regional economic links and further integration is likely to be a central feature of future development in the region that will shape the eventual regional institutions and the attitudes of individual countries towards some difficult issues, including disputes among countries.
It appears that the third layer game has far reaching implications for the power play in East Asia, given it is out of the desire of ASEAN for its centrality purpose. RCEP seems to suggest that it will be difficult for any power to unilaterally act to attempt to purposefully exclude any important regional players. This is particularly noteworthy given the proceedings of other economic negotiations, particularly with some exclusivity.
The regional economic links and further integration is likely to be a central feature of future development in the region that will shape the eventual regional institutions and the attitudes of individual countries towards some difficult issues, including disputes among countries.
2012-03-09
Realistic and optimistic on Asia
Comments on Koh "
Three challenges to Asia’s global ascent", 9/03/2012, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/03/08/three-challenges-to-asia-s-global-ascent/
The three areas Koh listed are all very
important issues that many Asian countries face, and should and must
be dealt with sooner or later.
I somehow am confident and optimistic
that those issues will be able to be dealt with and resolved in the
due course.
Although I have been aware that Gini is
high and has been on the rise in China and many people have used that
as a big problem in the rapid growing Chinese economy, I didn't
realise that Gini is 0.48 in Singapore. I think that China will pay
more attention to inclusive growth and achieve better equity in terms
of income distribution as its income level rises and as its labour
force turns from surplus to relatively scarce especially in the
context of rapid growth of the economy and of physical capital
investment.
In terms of environment sustainability,
it is likely that we will see gradual and significant improvement in
some fast growing economies, especially China, as it's economy enters
into a stage of extensive physical quantity growth to intensive
quality and value growth phase. I think China, leaving aside
urbanisation that will still be dominated by extensive physical
growth, is very close to this critical transition. Besides, as income
level rises, the relative value people place on environmental goods
will rise so naturally from now on we are likely to see more "demand"
for environmental goods relative to other goods.
Corruptions in many Asian countries are
reported to be serious. However, I do believe that it is likely to
decline and possibly significantly so in major large fast growing
Asian countries, especially in China.
If China is one of the best
representatives of Asian fast growing countries, especially when its
size and share in those fast growing economies are concerned, my
confidence and optimism in them to resolve those three issues seems
to be justifiable.
2011-12-09
South China Sea: a legal way forward?
Comments on John Hemmings “The South China Sea dispute: a legal solution needed”, 7/12/2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/12/07/the-south-china-sea-dispute-a-legal-solution-needed/
It is not a bad idea to seek a legal framework to resolve the South China Sea dispute, although some may fear that whether the existing international legal system or parts of it is biased or influenced by some unfairly.
If the States involved agree it is the best way to move forward, perhaps they should set themselves a sunset clause or deadline, by that time they will move to an agreed international legal framework should the disputes still not resolved through the current precesses.
If the States involved agree it is the best way to move forward, perhaps they should set themselves a sunset clause or deadline, by that time they will move to an agreed international legal framework should the disputes still not resolved through the current precesses.
PS: there are maybe a need for a new international legal frame work to balance the existing ones and legitimate issues of fairness, should any of such issues exist.
2011-05-08
Don't take mechanical approach to financial standard
Comments on Andrew Sheng “Strengthing the Asian financial system: To look forward, look back”, May 6th, 2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/05/06/to-look-forward-look-back/
A couple of questions:
Firstly, if the global standard was not able to avoid financial crisis at an almost global scale in which Asia weathered pretty well, what is the point for Asia standard to reach that global standard? Is that for the superficial purpose to look good only?
Secondly, do we really need a global central bank? Look at the euro zone crisis one will probably not feel any need for it.
A couple of questions:
Firstly, if the global standard was not able to avoid financial crisis at an almost global scale in which Asia weathered pretty well, what is the point for Asia standard to reach that global standard? Is that for the superficial purpose to look good only?
Secondly, do we really need a global central bank? Look at the euro zone crisis one will probably not feel any need for it.
2011-03-30
Post Hillary era
Comments on Ernest Bower “‘After Hillary’ era concerns Southeast Asia”, 30/03/2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/03/30/after-hillary-era-concerns-southeast-asia/
It is interesting to see that Ernest Bower talks as if deficits are not part of the national interests!
Deficits, especially government ones, are a deep problem for the US, potentially for a number of reasons.
1. Should international investors lose faith on the ability of the US government to manage its deficits, then problems, not quite to the scale of Greece, and some other countries in the euro zone but nevertheless could be serious enough, will emerge.
2. Once international issues arise, then gradually it will turn to domestic political and monetary problems, because it will become difficult even for the Fed to use its QE tools.
3. The current abnormally unusually low interest rates cannot continue, and once interest rates return to their more normal levels, the burden of large government deficits will show and further exacerbate the deficit problems.
4. When the US government is forced to tackle budget deficit and cut it, services will be reduced and the Americans public will experience pains and how they will react to those pains will affect the US economy as well.
The point is that the US has enough problems at hand and the recent hesitations of the US president in dealing with the recent unrests in the Middle East and the Arab world, while criticised by many, is likely to be reflection of the constraints he has or foresees while others feel unburdened by any of those constraints can say the US should do this or that.
That is not too dissimilar to the situation in Australia where the Greens can be very radical and extreme in their views because they are not government and don’t need to balance the budget or face voter’s revolt over pains that would arise out of those extreme policy proposals.
The world has changed significantly and is having rapid and profound changes now and over the coming decades. In a changing and changed world, it is unlikely that the US will continue to have both the economic power and influence to continue its role as it has had so far.
It is a matter of wish and ability or capacity.
Whether that will be good or not so good for the world depends on two things: a. how the US behaves and b. how other big players behave in such a changed and changing environment.
It is interesting to see that Ernest Bower talks as if deficits are not part of the national interests!
Deficits, especially government ones, are a deep problem for the US, potentially for a number of reasons.
1. Should international investors lose faith on the ability of the US government to manage its deficits, then problems, not quite to the scale of Greece, and some other countries in the euro zone but nevertheless could be serious enough, will emerge.
2. Once international issues arise, then gradually it will turn to domestic political and monetary problems, because it will become difficult even for the Fed to use its QE tools.
3. The current abnormally unusually low interest rates cannot continue, and once interest rates return to their more normal levels, the burden of large government deficits will show and further exacerbate the deficit problems.
4. When the US government is forced to tackle budget deficit and cut it, services will be reduced and the Americans public will experience pains and how they will react to those pains will affect the US economy as well.
The point is that the US has enough problems at hand and the recent hesitations of the US president in dealing with the recent unrests in the Middle East and the Arab world, while criticised by many, is likely to be reflection of the constraints he has or foresees while others feel unburdened by any of those constraints can say the US should do this or that.
That is not too dissimilar to the situation in Australia where the Greens can be very radical and extreme in their views because they are not government and don’t need to balance the budget or face voter’s revolt over pains that would arise out of those extreme policy proposals.
The world has changed significantly and is having rapid and profound changes now and over the coming decades. In a changing and changed world, it is unlikely that the US will continue to have both the economic power and influence to continue its role as it has had so far.
It is a matter of wish and ability or capacity.
Whether that will be good or not so good for the world depends on two things: a. how the US behaves and b. how other big players behave in such a changed and changing environment.
2011-03-18
Bloxham's possible correct conclusion based on wrong theory
Comments on Paul Bloxham “The Australian housing bubble furphy”, 18/03/2011, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Australian-property-prices-housing-bubble-pd20110317-F24WP?OpenDocument&src=rot
Paul Bloxham's use of the less than two decades data to justify his theory is a bit over reach, or over stretch.
In the late 1990's, many people were used to the theory of new valuation for the dot com tech companies. But that didn't prevent the market fallout in 2000 or thereabouts.
Before the recent global financial crisis, many people, including many financial genius, thought probably new paradigms of finance. But we just have had the Great Recession, not to mention the near death (collapse) of global banking and finance industry.
However, I think Paul might have had a point right even though his theory is wrong. Australia is different from the US and many other European countries. It is related to international geography, populations and immigration as well as relative external and internal demand and supply.
It has small population with a large land and located in Asia where people density is so high and populaitons are so large. Any demand from Asians for Australian houses and land can potentially sustain an otherwise serious housing bubble.
Therefore, the effects of external demand for Australian housing market can cause serious dislocation of house valuation, because for many Asians, it may be relatively cheaper to have houses with land that is so scarce in their home lands.
So, I think Paul has a wrong theory, wrong diagnose, but a possibly correct conclusion.
That itself is an irony, but it often happens to the so called experts. And it is not very unusual after all. I would give a mark of 50% to Bloxham's work.
Paul Bloxham's use of the less than two decades data to justify his theory is a bit over reach, or over stretch.
In the late 1990's, many people were used to the theory of new valuation for the dot com tech companies. But that didn't prevent the market fallout in 2000 or thereabouts.
Before the recent global financial crisis, many people, including many financial genius, thought probably new paradigms of finance. But we just have had the Great Recession, not to mention the near death (collapse) of global banking and finance industry.
However, I think Paul might have had a point right even though his theory is wrong. Australia is different from the US and many other European countries. It is related to international geography, populations and immigration as well as relative external and internal demand and supply.
It has small population with a large land and located in Asia where people density is so high and populaitons are so large. Any demand from Asians for Australian houses and land can potentially sustain an otherwise serious housing bubble.
Therefore, the effects of external demand for Australian housing market can cause serious dislocation of house valuation, because for many Asians, it may be relatively cheaper to have houses with land that is so scarce in their home lands.
So, I think Paul has a wrong theory, wrong diagnose, but a possibly correct conclusion.
That itself is an irony, but it often happens to the so called experts. And it is not very unusual after all. I would give a mark of 50% to Bloxham's work.
2011-03-01
History in shorter and longer terms
Comments on Jennifer Chen “Vietnam’s open port policy: strategy for keeping China at bay”, 1/03/2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/03/01/vietnams-open-port-policy-strategy-for-keeping-china-at-bay/
Vietnam's strategy may or may not necessarily work.
Russia is in the picture as an important player in the background, though at the moment many people have not mentioned it.
Further, as the relative strategic strengths between the US and China shift, both will rethink their own strategies, or will have to do so in the mean time.
In such as big theatre with the US, China and Russia in play, any very short term strategies may not be consistent with longer term interests.
Although history has not always shown to be rational or planned in any rational manner, sometimes history has some inevitability.
There are many issues and areas that bilateral dealings have to be made.
PS: the best strategy for the future of Asia is to have an Asian organisation that can deal with Asian regional issues.
Vietnam's strategy may or may not necessarily work.
Russia is in the picture as an important player in the background, though at the moment many people have not mentioned it.
Further, as the relative strategic strengths between the US and China shift, both will rethink their own strategies, or will have to do so in the mean time.
In such as big theatre with the US, China and Russia in play, any very short term strategies may not be consistent with longer term interests.
Although history has not always shown to be rational or planned in any rational manner, sometimes history has some inevitability.
There are many issues and areas that bilateral dealings have to be made.
PS: the best strategy for the future of Asia is to have an Asian organisation that can deal with Asian regional issues.
2011-02-03
Mongolia needs to come out of isolation
Comments on Justin Li “Chinese investment in Mongolia: An uneasy courtship between Goliath and David”, 2/02/2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/02/02/chinese-investment-in-mongolia-an-uneasy-courtship-between-goliath-and-david/
Energy and commodities are highly globally traded products, and there is no need to diversify for diversification's sake.
No matter how diversification could be done, China is the largest user and importers for many commodities and that does put a limitation on diversification.
Rather than fearing being too dependent on China, Mongolia needs to meet the challenges associated with its geographical location by joining regional organisations and participating in regional and global economic integration and be an organic part of it and benefit from it.
There is no easy escape from economic integration into isolation and benefit from isolation.
If Mongolia continues to resist regional economic integration, it runs the risk of paying a high price.
PS: It is interesting to see that now Mongolia is afraid of Chinese influence while in history the Mongols conquered China and ruled it for hundreds of years.
Energy and commodities are highly globally traded products, and there is no need to diversify for diversification's sake.
No matter how diversification could be done, China is the largest user and importers for many commodities and that does put a limitation on diversification.
Rather than fearing being too dependent on China, Mongolia needs to meet the challenges associated with its geographical location by joining regional organisations and participating in regional and global economic integration and be an organic part of it and benefit from it.
There is no easy escape from economic integration into isolation and benefit from isolation.
If Mongolia continues to resist regional economic integration, it runs the risk of paying a high price.
PS: It is interesting to see that now Mongolia is afraid of Chinese influence while in history the Mongols conquered China and ruled it for hundreds of years.
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