Comments on Ming Hwa Ting “The new Spice War: China, Japan and rare metals”, 22/04/2010, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/04/21/the-new-spice-war-china-japan-and-rare-metals/
Good observations or speculations.
People, firms and countries are all rational and intelligent enough to maximise their interests in a given environment or even change that environment to do it if they can.
Whenever there is market power, they will use it to their advantages.
Why not and who will not. Haven't we seen that happens in oil, or other raw materials like iron ore in the international market?
But they are also rational enough to develop reasonably cooperative arrangements to maximise the interests of the greater whole.
While it is interesting for some parties to speculate on what may happen, it is more important for relevant parties to cooperate to achieve better outcomes for all, based on the Plato efficiency principle.